Demography in Europe

Class 1 looked at the changing structure of European demography. Currently the population of Europe is estimated to be 728 million. It is projected that this figure will fall to around 653 million by 2050 while at the same time the population of the entire world is expected to rise from 6 billion to 9 billion. In addition to this fall in population the age expectancy of Europeans in set to rise resulting in the need for 100 workers to pay for the pensions of 75 retired people. This is a drastic increase from the current rate of 35 pensioners to 100 workers. While this is an overall trend in Europe, some countries will experience a pensioner worker ratio of 1:1. This demographic catastrophe will have huge implications on how society is organised and will greatly hamper the European social model. How can a state support such vast amounts of dependents? How will health care providers cope with the burden of an increasingly aged population? What effects will this have on political structures? Will right wing parties pander to an increasingly aged white population who feel threatened by an ever increasing expanding ethnically mixed society? These are some of the questions that were discussed in class. Along with these questions some policy responses were discussed, such as increasing migration, limiting contraception in order to promote child birth, improving child care facilities, raising retirement ages, and reforming the pension system.
We looked at Ireland as an exception within Europe due to its increasing population. Along with Cyprus, the United Kingdom and Luxembourg, Ireland is experiencing positive population growth. This stands in marked contrast with countries such as Germany and France who are set to experience dramatic decreases in the populations over the foreseeable future. Currently Ireland's populations grows by about 87000 annually. When the natural increase (about 33500 per annum) is taken out of the equation it is clear that Ireland's increasing population is largely due to in migration. The major themes that emerged in the class discussion centered around Ireland's changing society, the impact ethnic diversity is having in education and on society as a whole and especially on the concept of what is 'Irish Identity'.

Next weeks' class will focus on the changing patterns of family formation and on ethnic diversity in the UK. Please read the following articles which are available in my Reader in the Students Union.

We Need More Babies http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,785317,00.html

Penn, R. (2000). British population and Society in 2025: Some Conjectures

For the second hour we will begin to look at Immigration in Europe. For a good overview of the issues please have a look at the Emmer article on Europe and the Immigration Debate.